On Our "Virtual Route 99" As WInter Storms Loom in America
By Brian Kahn, Brian K Sullivan and Naureen S Malik
The eastern two-thirds of the US is gearing up for a major winter storm. Ice, sleet and snow will spread across an area spanning thousands of miles.
While parts of the US have dealt with major winter storms in recent years, from California being pummeled by atmospheric rivers last year to Texas’ 2021 deep freeze, the country hasn’t seen any with this geographic scope. But two factors are lining up to create a weather system that’s forecast to grip dozens of states from New Mexico to Maine.
The first is cold air. After all, snow and ice can’t happen without temperatures below freezing. The big chill comes courtesy of a huge dip in the jet stream, a band of air that moves from west to east. But it’s occasionally prone to wild swings, like the one currently over North America that has cold air riding it out of Alaska and swooping across the southern US. That dip — also known as a trough — will cause temperatures to drop well below seasonal averages.
“The large-scale nature of the pattern also means that we’re getting a widespread region of cold and not just getting clipped by a short cold spell,” said Andrea Lopez Lang, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
With that cold in place, the other key ingredient is moisture. That’s coming courtesy of a weather system that will blow in from around Baja California. While relatively smaller scale, it will act like a pulse of energy in the atmosphere.
If these two atmospheric pieces “come together perfectly, that then is the recipe and ingredients for a really big storm,” said Curtis Walker, a scientist at the US National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research.
In addition to icing from the South through the Mid-Atlantic, more than a foot of snow is likely to fall across a large part of the Northeast. New York may see upwards of 14 inches of powder before the storm winds down Monday, said Hometown Forecast Services meteorologist Scott Kaplan. The Boston area may see as much as 20 inches of snow, while Washington may get 8 inches or more.
With Texas in particular gearing up for hazards and potential power outages, it’s tempting to compare this to the 2021 freeze that killed dozens and left millions in the dark for days on end. But while there are similarities, this storm is forecast to be bigger and shorter.
During the 2021 event, cold weather caused gas power plants to fail across the st. But with significant icing will extend beyond Texas, this storm will expand the risk of outages caused by broken or downed power lines.
Lopez Lang pointed to a widespread ice storm that struck Canada and the US Northeast in 1998 as a point of comparison. That event caused inflation-adjusted damage of $2.7 billion in the US alone, including widespread damage to the grid and forests.
Warning signs are already flashing for the grid. Early Saturday, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator —which runs an electric grid across parts of the Midwest and South — declared an energy emergency alert 2 in its northern and central sections. That means it faces a “shortage and needs to reduce energy demand.”
Smaller outages are already happening: About 89,000 homes and businesses across the US don’t have power as of noon ET on Saturday, according to PowerOutage.US. More than half are in Texas, which is managed by a different grid operator.
Snow and ice will also impact major airport hubs and make ground travel dangerous. Already, airlines have canceled more than 10,000 flights through Monday, according to FlightAware, an airline tracking company. Airports in Charlotte, Atlanta, New York, Dallas, Washington, DC, and Atlanta are among the most affected.
Thousands of miles of interstate highways are expected to be hit by snow and ice, creating a “unique set of impacts” for repair crews to respond to, Walker said.
While the worst of the snow and ice will likely clear out of the US by Monday, frigid temperatures will linger in the days after. That’s due to the large nature of the trough, Lopez Lang said, and because the source of the cold air from the north “is open and is fairly persistent.”
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Flying low
45,000
The average number of flights daily in the US. More than 10,000 have already been canceled ahead of the storm, and delays are expected to be widespread.
A word of advice
“I encourage everyone to pay attention to your local forecast. Even though it’s the same system, the impacts can be quite different from one location to the next.”
Andrea Lopez Lang
Atmospheric scientist, University of Wisconsin
The storm is big. The impacts are local. Keep an eye on what your local officials have to say.
More storm news you can use
- Texas has already declared a disaster ahead of the storm. Ice will hit the Dallas area particularly hard; the Panhandle is bracing for snow; and temperatures in Austin are forecast to dip to 16F (-9C) — roughly 25F chiller than normal.
- Remember the polar vortex? It’s back. Polar vortices are girdles of swirling cold air and low pressure surrounding the Earth’s poles. “Vortex” refers to the counter-clockwise wind pattern that helps lock the cold air near the poles. The Arctic one can cause frigid weather in the US and portions of Europe and Asia when it splits or stretches.
- Oil markets are feeling the pinch. Frigid weather sweeping across much of the US is starting to freeze oil and natural gas wells, threatening to disrupt production from North Dakota to Texas.
- Wind power also isn’t looking so hot. The Texas grid operator is forecasting very little wind generation — a key source of power — over the weekend just as a powerful winter storm promises to prompt a surge in electricity demand
- Zohran Mamdani has bad news for students: no snow day. The pandemic forced local education authorities to develop stronger infrastructure for online learning. Even as he announced the learning would go on, driven by state requirements, New York’s mayor reminisced about how snow days were “one of my favorite memories.”
President Trump Approves Historic Amount of Emergency Declarations in Record Time to Supplement State-Led Response Activities
The Department of Homeland Security and FEMA encourage residents to follow local officials as severe winter weather threats increase.
Under the direction of the United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, FEMA is actively coordinating with states across a large portion of the country to support state led, locally executed response efforts to severe winter weather. Residents and visitors should continue following instructions from local officials and monitor local weather.
What Emergency Declarations Include
President Trump approved 12 federal emergency disaster declarations for Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Federal emergency declarations allow states to tap into federal support through FEMA to provide lifesaving, life-sustaining resources. These declarations help the state-led efforts of getting the power back on, helping clearing roads for emergency services and keeping communities safe. The support for this disaster will be provided at 75% federal funding.
What FEMA is Doing
The agency’s distribution centers are stocked with more than 300 generators, over 7 million meals, more than 3 million liters of water and over 650,000 blankets.
FEMA is also delivering resources including 485,000 meals, 770,000 liters of water, 2,200 cots and medical equipment, 90 generators and 71 semitrucks and drivers across federal staging sites in Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia to support and streamline potential state requests.
In total, approximately 900 FEMA staff and personnel from other federal agencies are deployed to support affected states, and many are directly embedded in state emergency operations centers to ensure close coordination on response efforts.
FEMA has deployed three specialized teams to Texas, Louisiana and Virginia with 12 additional teams ready to deploy if needed. Additionally, 27 FEMA Urban Search and Rescue task forces are rostered and ready to assist at the request of governors.
These efforts include coordinating with states to actively monitor power outages, shelter occupancy and road closures across affected areas to quickly provide support if needed.
Safety Tips
Stay off the roads if local officials ask you to do so. This will help keep you safe and allow emergency response personnel to do their job. Those who need to drive should check local weather and traffic reports before leaving. Consider postponing non-essential travel.
Never use generators indoors. Keep generators at least 20 feet from windows, doors and garages to avoid. Using generators indoors can cause carbon monoxide poisoning.
Do not use a gas stove, propane heater or oven to heat your home. If you are using a kerosene heater, use only water-clear 1-K grade kerosene. Never use gasoline.
Call 211 or visit your local emergency management agency or community’s website for the location of warming shelters. You can also find shelters by visiting the American Red Cross shelter locator or calling 800-RED CROSS.
Download the FEMA App to receive real-time weather and emergency information, send notifications to loved ones, locate emergency shelters in your area, get preparedness strategies, and more.
Find more winter safety tips at Ready.gov.
Contact Us
If you have any questions, please contact FEMA Office of External Affairs:
- Congressional Affairs at (202) 646-4500 or at FEMA-Congressional-Affairs@
fema.dhs.gov - Intergovernmental Affairs at (202) 646-3444 or at FEMA-IGA@fema.dhs.gov
- Tribal Affairs at (202) 646-3444 or at FEMA-Tribal@fema.dhs.gov
- Private Sector Engagement at (202) 646-3444 or at FEMA-Private-Sector@fema.dhs.
gov
FEMA Mission
Helping people before, during, and after disasters.
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